Oscars: Rex’s Predictions
BEST PICTURE
Predicted winner — Green Book
Alternate winner — Roma
There has been a strident campaign against Green Book this season. It is accused of being an old-fashioned, Driving Miss Daisy-lite film which might hurt its chances. Conversely, there are several factors working against Roma as best picture winner. It is a Netflix (streaming) release and a foreign-language film with a separate nomination in that category. That said, the smart money is still on it making Oscar history. If not, then the Producers Guild Award (PGA) winner, Green Book, might emerge as the best pic winner because the PGA winner has matched best pic more frequently in the past decade and uses the same preferential balloting system as the Academy.
Other contenders:
Black Panther
The Favourite
BlakKKKlansman
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice
BEST ACTOR
Predicted winner — Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate winner — Christian Bale, Vice
At the start of the season, it seemed like the lead-actor race would be dominated by Viggo Mortensen (Green Book). However, previous supporting-actor-Oscar winner Christian Bale and Rami Malek emerged as frontrunners after their January victories at the Golden Globes. Malek added victories at the Critics Choice Awards, SAG, and BAFTA and became the favorite.
Other contenders:
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted winner — Glenn Close, The Wife
Alternate winner — Olivia Colman, The Favourite
As in the lead actor race, three performers have emerged as frontrunners in the precursors. Six-time nominee Glenn Close (The Wife) won the Globe for dramatic actress, Olivia Colman (The Favourite) won for comedy actress and BAFTA best actress while Lady Gaga shared Best Actress with Close at the Critics Choice awards. With her victory at SAG, Close became the frontrunner.
Other contenders:
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Yalitza Apararicio, Roma
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted winner — Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Alternate winner — Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
The supporting acting categories is where upsets frequently occur. Mahershala Ali, a previous best supporting actor winner, has swept the precursors and is expected to do the same on Oscar night. However, the fact that he won this category a mere two years ago could obstruct his victory. Pundits believe his closest rival is the English actor Richard E. Grant, who can be said to have run a joyful campaign.
Other contenders:
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Rockwell, Vice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted winner — Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternate winner — Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
This turned out to be an interesting race. Having won the Globe and Critics Choice, Regina King was the experts’ favorite but she is the only one whose film is not a best pic nominee and she was not nominated for a SAG or BAFTA. Amy Adams, a five-time Oscar nominee, is overdue for a win but Vice is divisive and her playing Lynn Cheney didn’t help. Rachel Weisz could be said to be the co-lead in The Favourite and recently won the BAFTA. This category could go any way — even to newbie Marina de Tavira if Roma has an unlikely sweep.
Other contenders:
Emma Stone, The Favourite
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted winner — Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
No alternate winner
Alfonso Cuaron (previous Oscar winner for Gravity, in 2013) is the surefire favorite here. The question is: will the Academy give him best picture as well? (Gravity lost best picture to !2 Years a Slave.)
Other contenders:
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Adam McKay, Vice
Yorgos Lathimos, The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted winner — Green Book
Alternate winner — First Reformed
Critics loved First Reformed but Green Book is a strong best picture contender and could take this one on its way to the top prize. Both Moonlight (2016) and Spotlight (2015) carried a screenplay win in addition for best picture. (Moonlight added supporting actor to its tally.)
Other contenders:
The Favourite
Roma
Vice
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted winner — BlacKKKlansman
Alternate winner — Can You Ever Forgive Me
WGA winner Can You Ever Forgive Me should take this but word is that BlacKKKlansman, written and directed by Spike Lee, is surging, and this is the best place to award Lee, who is also nommed for best director. (Lee received an honorary Oscar in 2015.)
Other contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
A Star is Born
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Predicted winner — Roma (Mexico)
Alternate winner — Cold War (Poland)
This category will indicate how thing are going for Roma on Oscar night. If Cold War wins then it is even more likely that Roma will win best picture. But if Roma wins foreign film at the halfway mark the possibility of adding best picture diminishes.
Other contenders:
Shoplifters (Japan)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Never Look Away (Germany)
PREDICTED WINNERS IN OTHER CATEGORIES
Cinematography — Roma
Editing — Vice
Production Design — The Favourite
Sound Mixing — Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing — Black Panther
Visual Effects — First Man
Original Score — Black Panther
Original Song — A Star is Born
Costume Design — Black Panther
Makeup and Hair — Mary Queen of Scots
Animated Feature — Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Feature — Free Solo
Live Action Short — Marguerite
Documentary Short – Black Sheep
Animated Short – Bao
