Oscar Noms: Rex’s Predictions
BEST PICTURE
It is now the norm for 5 to 10 films to be picked as nominees for best picture using the Academy’s preferential balloting system. After a pre-nomination season without a clear frontrunner, this weekend’s Producers Guild Award (PGA) win by Green Book might indicate its emergence as the film to beat on Oscar night. This is because the PGA winner has matched best picture more frequently than other precursors in the past decade owing to its use of the same preferential balloting system as the Academy. Here is the list of contenders likely to be mentioned tomorrow morning.
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
BEST ACTOR
At the start of the season, Viggo Mortensen was a contender until he was unfairly maligned with talk of a racist comment on social media. (He apologized.) Previous Oscar winner Christian Bale plus Rami Malek have emerged as frontrunners after their recent victories at the Golden Globes. Bale subsequently added a win at the Critics Choice Awards. The list of nominees is expected to be:
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
BEST ACTRESS
Three actresses have emerged as frontrunners in the precursors. Six-time nominee Glenn Close won the Globe for dramatic actress, Olivia Colman won for comedy actress while Lady Gaga won joint best actress with Close at the Critics Choice Awards. The three go head-to-head at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and are predicted to be joined by the two below. Whoever emerges victorious at SAG becomes the Oscar frontrunner.
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Alternate: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, a previous best supporting actor winner (“Moonlight”) has swept the precursors and is expected to do the same at the Oscars. His list will be:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is turning out to be an interesting race as Amy Adams, a five-time Oscar nominee, is overdue for a win. Regina King won the Globe but was not nominated for SAG or BAFTA (whose membership overlaps with AMPAS), which hurts her chances for an Oscar win. With that in mind, a victory for Adams at SAG will put her in front. These two, and the three others below, will duel down to the wire.
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron (a previous Oscar winner for Gravity, in 2013) is the surefire favorite to win this category at the Oscars. The question is: will the Academy give him best picture as well? (Gravity lost best picture to 12 Years a Slave). Cuaron is expected to be joined by a list that echoes that of the Directors Guild (DGA). Expect someone to be replaced, however, as the Academy rarely matches the DGA five for five.
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice
Alternate: Torgos Lathimos, The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
First Reformed
The Favourite
A Quiet Place
Vice
Green Book
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Leave No Trace
A Star Is Born
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Roma – Mexico
Cold War – Poland
Shoplifters – Japan
Capernaum – Lebanon
Burning – South Korea
