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Lemonwade’s Oscar expert, Rex Okpodu, has forecast the following choices. I differ with Rex on Best Motion Picture. I think it will be “The Revenant.” And on Film Editing. I think it will be “Mad Max.”

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The Big Short
Spotlight
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Room
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn

Predicted Winner: The Big Short.

Unusually, three of the eight contending films have won the industry precursors: Spotlight won Screen Actors Guild (SAG) ensemble, The Big Short, the Producers Guild (PGA) and The Revenant won The Directors Guild (DGA). This usually points to a split between director and picture at the Oscars. I am going out on a limb to predict The Big Short as the winner despite the recent high profile wins by The Revenant at the DGA and recent BAFTA awards this month. My reasoning hedges on the preferential voting used by The PGA, the same used in the best picture category at the Oscars. Sentimentally, I do not see how Ampas will award best picture to a film from the same director two years in a row.

Achievement in Directing

“The Big Short” Adam McKay
“Spotlight” Tom McCarthy
“Mad Max: Fury Road” George Miller
“The Revenant” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Room” Lenny Abrahamson

Predicted Winner: Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant.

Golden Globe, DGA and BAFTA winner, Innaritu is expected to make history by becoming only the 3rd director in Oscar’s 88 year history to win back to back Oscars in this category. The other two winners were John Ford for The Grape of Wrath (1940) and How Green Was My Valley (1941) and Joseph L Mankiewicz, Letter to Three Wives (1950) and All About Eve (1951)

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant”
Matt Damon in “The Martian”
Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs”
Bryan Cranston in “Trumbo”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl”

Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant”

Leo is overdue and will win this year. Nothing more to be said.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”
Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight”
Christian Bale in “The Big Short”
Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies”
Tom Hardy in “The Revenant”
This category a.k.a. the white veterans achievement award a.k.a.the 2016 award given to the only white guy in a black empowerment film!

Predicted Winner: Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”.

His performance is warm and winning, coupled with his being in the business so long – 40 years after his previous nomination for playing the same role, Rocky Balboa in Rocky (1976)

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Brie Larson in “Room”
Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”
Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years”
Cate Blanchett in “Carol”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy”

Predicted Winner: Brie Larson in “Room”

Brie Larson has swept every precursor and the Oscar is hers.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl”
Rooney Mara in “Carol”
Kate Winslet in “Steve Jobs
Jennifer Jason Leigh in “The Hateful Eight”
Rachel McAdams in “Spotlight”

Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl”

SAG winner Alicia Vikander looks like a safe bet only because her biggest opposition is Kate Winslet who already has an Oscar

Adapted Screenplay

“The Big Short” Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
“Carol” Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
“Room” Screenplay by Emma Donoghue
“Brooklyn” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
“The Martian” Screenplay by Drew Goddard

Predicted Winner: The Big Short, Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay

The Screenplay Oscar is either for an imminent best picture winner or the consolation for an also-ran contender.

Original Screenplay

“Spotlight” Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy
“Straight Outta Compton” Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff
“Inside Out” Screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original story by Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen
“Bridge of Spies” Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
“Ex Machina” Written by Alex Garland

Predicted Winner: Spotlight, Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy

Same as in the other screenplay category, this will most likely be a consolation prize for Spotlight

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

“Inside Out” Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera
“Anomalisa” Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran
“When Marnie Was There” Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura
“Shaun the Sheep Movie” Mark Burton and Richard Starzak
“Boy and the World” Alê Abreu

Predicted Winner: Inside Out, Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera

Arguably the best picture of the year but since 2001 when this category was created, it has become almost impossible for an animated film to strongly contend for best picture.

Achievement in Cinematography

“The Revenant” Emmanuel Lubezki
“Mad Max: Fury Road” John Seale
“Carol” Ed Lachman
“Sicario” Roger Deakins
“The Hateful Eight” Robert Richardson

Predicted Winner: The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki.

This will be Lubezki’s 3rd consecutive win in this category. He won this category in 2013 for Gravity and did the same for last year’s best picture winner, Birdman

Achievement in Costume Design

“Carol” Sandy Powell
“Cinderella” Sandy Powell
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Jenny Beavan
“The Danish Girl” Paco Delgado
“The Revenant” Jacqueline West

Predicted Winner: Carol, Sandy Powell

Best Documentary Feature

“What Happened, Miss Simone?” Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes
“Amy” Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees
“Cartel Land” Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin
“The Look of Silence” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
“Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor

Predicted Winner: Amy, Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees

Best Documentary Short Film

“Chau, beyond the Lines” Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck
“Last Day of Freedom” Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman
“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine
“A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness” Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
“Body Team 12” David Darg and Bryn Mooser

Predicted Winner: Claude Lanzmann, Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine

Achievement in Film Editing

“The Big Short” Hank Corwin
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Margaret Sixel
“Spotlight” Tom McArdle
“The Revenant” Stephen Mirrione
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

Predicted Winner: The Big Short, Hank Corwin

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

“Son of Saul” Hungary
“Mustang” France
“Theeb” Jordan
“Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia
“A War” Denmark

Predicted Winner: Son of Saul, Hungary

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling

“The Revenant” Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin
“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared” Love Larson and Eva von Bahr

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road, Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

I’m actually going to swap this out, based on Carol’s swoony score and betting that not everybody in the Academy will want to vote for anything Hateful 8 related.

“Carol” Carter Burwell
“The Hateful Eight” Ennio Morricone
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” John Williams
“Bridge of Spies” Thomas Newman
“Sicario” Jóhann Jóhannsson

Predicted Winner, “Carol,” Carter Burwell

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

“Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga
“Writing’s On The Wall” from “Spectre”
Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith
“Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction”
Music by J. Ralph and Lyric by Antony Hegarty
“Simple Song #3” from “Youth”
Music and Lyric by David Lang
“Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
Music and Lyric by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio

Predicted Winner: “Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga

Achievement in Production Design

“Mad Max: Fury Road” Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson
“The Revenant” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy
“The Martian” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak
“Bridge of Spies” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich
“The Danish Girl” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish

Predicted Winner, The Revenant” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy

Best Animated Short Film

“Prologue” Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton
“World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt
“Sanjay’s Super Team” Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle
“We Can’t Live without Cosmos” Konstantin Bronzit
“Bear Story” Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala

Predicted Winner: “Bear Story” Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala

Best Live Action Short Film

“Shok” Jamie Donoughue
“Day One” Henry Hughes
“Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage
“Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)” Patrick Vollrath
“Ave Maria” Basil Khalil and Eric Duponty

Predicted Winner: “Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage

Achievement in Sound Editing

“The Revenant” Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Mark Mangini and David White
“The Martian” Oliver Tarney
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Matthew Wood and David Acord
“Sicario” Alan Robert Murray

Predicted Winner: “The Revenant” Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender

Achievement in Sound Mixing

“Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo
“The Revenant” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
“The Martian” Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth
“Bridge of Spies” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo

Achievement in Visual Effects

“Mad Max: Fury Road” Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams
“The Revenant” Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
“The Martian” Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner
“Ex Machina” Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett

Predicted Winner: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould

by Brendan Lemon | 2/26/16 | Leave a comment |