Rex’s Oscar Predictions
Rex Okpodu, LemonWade’s ace Oscarologist, has sifted through all the clues and come up with his final predictions for the 87th Academy Awards, which will be held this Sunday in Los Angeles. My main difference from Rex is that I think Michael Keaton, not Eddie Redmayne, will win Best Actor, and that Alejandro Inarritu, not Richard Linklater, will win Best Director. Here are Rex’s predictions:
Best Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
American Sniper
Selma
It’s a curious state of things for better or worse when the only film of the eight nominees that millions of people feel strongly about is American Sniper. That said, the safest bet for best picture is Birdman since it swept the Guilds – the SAG ensemble, PGA and DGA. The only hitches on the march to Oscar’s podium: the lack of an editing nomination, and the loss of the BAFTA for best film and the Golden Globe for best comedy. The last time a comedy won Oscar’s top prize without a Globe win was way back in 1977 – Annie Hall.
Predicted Winner: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood
Best Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
Having won the DGA, Inarritu should be a shoo-in for a win in this category. However, it is hard to imagine Linklater’s 12-year odyssey making Boyhood will go unrewarded by AMPAS.
Predicted Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alternate: Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
This looks likes Redmayne’s to lose as he won the Globe, SAG and BAFTA but one cannot rule out Keaton especially if Birdman is going to win best picture. That often comes with an acting award and Birdman’s lead actor is the strongest contender. Another snag for Redmayne might be the whispering “Norbit†campaign against his follow up to Theory, the execrable Jupiter Ascending – but it did not get any traction so Eddie is probably safe.
Predicted Winner: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Alternate: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper, is on his 3rd consecutive nomination in 3 years and is from very popular, American Sniper. Could he be the surprise wild card in the mix?
Aside from lead actor, the leading contenders from the rest of acting categories are almost so certain that we will not even bother with alternates. Each of them has won all the precursor awards of Globes/SAG and the BAFTA. We therefore predict:
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice will almost certainly be the winner
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Best Supporting Actor
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash is the predicted winner
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffolo, Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood is the predicted winner
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild
The Screenplays
Most of the suspense on Oscar night will probably come from the Screenplay awards as an indication of where best picture is headed or as a consolation for a possible best-picture loss. The races are so tight that we are not only giving our predicted winners but offering alternates and possible spoilers.
Best Original Screenplay
Grand Budapest Hotel won the WGA last week and is also our predicted winner on Oscar night.
Boyhood is the alternate with Birdman as the spoiler surprise.
The other 2 nominees were:
Foxcatcher
Nightcrawler
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Imitation Game is the predicted winner, Whiplash as the alternate with American Sniper being the spoiler surprise.
The other 2 nominees are:
The Theory of Everything
Inherent Vice
Best Foreign Film
It is often an unspoken rule when predicting the Oscars never to bet against a holocaust film. This means Globe and BAFTA winner Ida is most likely to emerge the winner on Oscar night. Alternatively, dirty politics in Russia is always topical and Leviathan could prove the foil to Ida.
Ida (Poland) is our predicted winner
Leviathan (Russia) is our choice for alternate and the crowd-pleasing Wild Tales (Argentina (Argentina) is the spoiler,
The other 2 nominees are:
Tangerines, Estonia
Timbuktu, Mauritania
Best Animated Feature
Gasps were heard on Oscar nomination morning when The Lego Movie failed to make the nominated list. The Academy does not tend to go for sequels (Toy Story 3 is the only exception to date) and this makes it difficult to pick Dragon 3. We are therefore predicting:
Big Hero 6 as the winner and
How to Train Your Dragon 2 as the alternate
The other 3 nominees are:
Song of the Sea
The Boxtrolls
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Original Song
“Glory†from Selma is predicted winner
The Oscar show for us at LW will peak when Common and Johnny Legend will get to perform this song, while songwriters John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn will march to thepodium to receive their respective Oscars. Apart from it being a rousing political song, “Glory” will be a small compensation for the cruelly snubbed Selma whose only other nomination is best picture.
“Everything is Awesome†from The Lego Movie (the film was also surprisingly snubbed) could be the alternate choice
Finally, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You†from I’ll Be Me written by the Glen Campbell (who is ailing from Alzheimer’s disease) might be a spoiler.
The other 2 nominees are:
“Grateful†from Beyond the Lights
“Lost Stars†from Begin Again
The rest of the predictions:
Film Editing – Boyhood
Cinematography – Birdman
Production Design – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Costume Design – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Makeup and Hairstyling – Foxcatcher
Visual Effects – Interstellar
Sound Editing – American Sniper
Sound Mixing – Whiplash
Original Score – The Theory of Everything
Animated Short – Feast
Documentary Feature – Citizenfour
Documentary Short – Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press I
Live Action Short – Boogaloo and Graham
