LemonWade Makes Oscar-Nom Predictions
LemonWade’s in-house prognosticator Rex Okpodu has gazed into his crystal ball and glimpsed the following as we await this Thursday’s Academy Award nominations. The current award season started at the various film festivals last September followed by announcements by the various critics groups at the end of 2013, culminating in nominations from the guilds in the New Year. Here are LemonWade’s predictions for the main categories, including alternates:
Between 5 to 10 films will vie for a best picture nomination. A film cannot be nominated for best picture with less than 5 percent of the total number of votes cast.
The contenders predicted to make that list include (in alphabetical order):
Best Picture:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Gravity
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternate: Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alternate: Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
This was the recently announced nomination lineup for the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and the DGA list rarely matches Oscar’s directors’ list of nominees (5 times to date – 1977, 1981, 1998, 2005 and 2009). With that in mind, Alexander Payne (Nebraska) or Spike Jonze (Her) could replace one of the DGA directors because Payne’s and Jonze’s films are strongly contending for a place on the best picture list.
Best Actor:
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Dern, Ejiofor and McConaughey seem to be shoo-ins for the best actor. Redford was surprisingly omitted by the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) but rallied at the Globes. Hanks have been touted for his performance with his film seems quietly notching up nominations at all the Guilds. The question for this category: since DiCaprio won the Golden Globe on Sunday night for actor in a Comedy/Musical, does that translate into an Oscar nomination and whom does he displace?
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August Osage County)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Alternate: Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Nothing much to say here as this has been the same list speculated by Oscarologists all season. Having picked up a main acting Globe for Musical/Comedy, does Amy Adams — like Leo with actors — crack into the Oscar nominations and, if so, whom does she push off the list?
Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhard Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Alternate: Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
This lineup would also also match the SAG nominations. Surprises often happen in the supporting acting categories to the extent that a performance might be nominated without its film having any other nominations. Conversely, a supporting performance in a strong film for best picture might have coattails. Look out for the strength from American Hustle to possibly benefit Cooper.
Best Supporting Actress:
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Julia Roberts (August Osage County)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniel’s The Butler)
Alternate: Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
The nagging question for this category: does Oprah make the cut for her performance in Lee Daniels’ The Butler, which has so far been overlooked by most precursors — except at actors in SAG?
Best Foreign-Language Film
Having received submissions from 76 Countries, the Academy recently announced a shortlist of 9 and we are predicting the following 5 nominees:
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
The Hunt (Denmark)
An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
Omar (Palestine)
Alternate: The Notebook (Hungary)
Best Original Screenplay:
American Hustle (Eric Singer and David O Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Her (Spike Jonzes)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan and Joel Coen)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Alternate: Fruitvale Nation (Ryan Coogler)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
August Osage County (Tracy Letts)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan)
Alternate: Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter)
Best Animated Feature:
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Monsters University
The Croods
The Wind Rises
Alternate: Epic
