Rex’s Current Oscar Predictions
With less than two weeks to go before the Oscars (Feb. 24), here are the current Oscar predictions by LW’s Oscarologist, Rex Okpodu:
Best Picture:
Having swept the Golden Globes, the Guilds and BAFTA, Argo seems poised to win Oscar’s top prize despite its director’s omission from the directing category. The question for most pundits is whether Argo will go the way of Apollo 13 (1995) which won the same precursors but lost best picture Oscar to Braveheart, or whether Ben Affleck will ‘Drive Miss Daisy’ all the way to the big prize without a directing nomination?
Predicted winner: Argo
Alternate: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook
The other contenders are:
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Director:
This year’s quirky Oscar race saw the director of the frontrunner for best picture omitted from this category. It might not be a big surprise if the director of the strongest best picture contender to unseat Argo (Lincoln has the most nominations of 12) also misses out on Oscar night.
Predicted winner: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Alternate: And Lee (Life of Pi)
Dark Horse: David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
The other contenders are:
Benh Zeitlin (Beast of the Southern Wild
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Best Actor:
Winning the Critics Choice, Globe, SAG and BAFTA makes Daniel Day Lewis almost certain to make history as the only actor to hold 3 best actor Oscars on 24 February.
Predicted winner: Daniel-Day Lewis (Lincoln)
Alternate: Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
The other contenders are:
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Joaquin Phoenix in (The Master)
Best Actress:
The race for best actress is a nail biter this year: 4 of the 5 contenders are in films in best picture contention. This year sees two young actresses (Globe winners in drama and musical/comedy respectively), Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, pitted against octogenarian, Emmanuelle Riva. Lawrence became the frontrunner by winning at SAG but Riva made a last minute splash by taking the BAFTA at the weekend. This late surge might get just Riva ahead over the finishing line. It is however a great pity that she did not attend BAFTA where she could have given a classy speech thereby providing AMPAS members (currently voting), a strong visual reminder of her presence.
Predicted winner: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Alternate: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Dark Horse: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
The other contenders are:
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Best Supporting Actor:
This is one of the hardest categories to predict, as the contenders on Oscar’s list have not directly competed against each other at any of the precursors. Christoph Waltz looks like being the frontrunner, having taken the Globe and BAFTA but Tommie Lee Jones won at SAG whose membership more directly overlaps with the Academy than does BAFTA’s. Added to the mix is the threat from Robert De Niro who is very much overdue having last won an Oscar for lead actor more that 30 years ago. Finally, Arkin cannot be completely discounted if Argo is on a winning streak and the Academy decides to up the film’s tally by including an acting category.
Predicted winner: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Alternate: Christophe Waltz (Django Unchained)
Dark Horse: Robert De Niro (Silver Lining Playbook)
The other contenders are:
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway has had a clean sweep of the precursors and looks certain to continue this streak by winning this category. An upset might occur if Field gets to keep her record as a two time Oscar winner from 2 nominations – the last was in 1985.
Predicted winner: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Alternate: Sally Field (Lincoln)
Dark Horse: Jackie Weaver (Silver Lining Playbook)
The other contenders are:
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Argo looks to be finishing strong having just taken the SCRIPTER award from a widely tipped Tony Kushner (Lincoln). The WGA announces on 17 February and a win there will cement Argo’s frontrunner status.
Predicted winner: Argo
Alternate: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook
The other contenders are:
Argo
Life Of Pi
Best Original Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained looks unstoppable having won the Globe and the BAFTA. The WGA will make things clearer but one cannot discount a late play from the widely touted Haneke whose Amour, though not in English, has garnered much support by getting 7 overall nominations.
Predicted winner: Django Unchained
Alternate: Amour
Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty
The other contenders are:
Moonrise Kingdom
Flight
Best Foreign Language:
It will be a huge shock if Amour does not win this category but surprises sometimes happen here. An example was when Mexico’s Pan’s Labyrinth (Mexico) lost to Germany’s The Lives of Others in 2007.
Predicted winner: Amour (Austria)
Alternate: A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Dark Horse: War Witch (Canada)
The other contenders are:
Lore (Australia)
No (Chile)
Best Animated Feature:
The competition here is between Ralph and Brave but Tim Burton’s Frankenweenie might benefit from the high profile of its director.
Predicted winner: Wreck-It Ralph
Alternate: Brave
Dark Horse: Frankenweenie
The other contenders are:
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
ParaNorman
