Oscars 2013: Rex’s Early Predictions
LemonWade’s Oscarologist, Rex Okpodu, has sifted through this month’s critics’ awards and various nominations (Golden Globes, SAG), and come out with the following summary of what’s in the hunt for the upcoming Academy Awards in major categories. What he says may surprise you.
Best Picture:
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Alternate: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The first five films (in order of strength) are the top contenders and are almost certain to get nominated for best picture on Jan 10. Depending on the final number of nominees this year (we will go with 9 for now since that was last year’s tally), Moonrise, Pi, and Django could round up the rest of the list. Pi, Django and Moonrise Kingdom were nominated for Best Motion Picture Drama and Comedy or Musical respectively at the recently announced Golden Globes. The 9th nominee could be Marigold Hotel, which got love from the actors (the largest voting bloc at the Academy) by making the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Ensemble list and scoring a Globe nomination for Comedy or Musical.
Best Director:
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Alternates: Tom Hooper (Les Misérables) or David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
It is difficult to predict the definitive five for best director. From the Globe nominations, Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck will probably make the Oscar cut. Lee and Tarantino, despite getting Globes nominations, are weaker for their films’ absence as ensemble contenders at SAG, but might fill the remaining slots. On the other hand, Hooper’s Les Misérables and Russell’s Silver Linings made the SAG ensemble list but were omitted from the directing category at the Globes. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominations announcement on January 8, two days before the Oscar Nominations, might make things clearer.
Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Alternate: Joaquin Phoenix in (The Master)
The lead actor category is almost complete with Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman, and Washington almost certain of nominations. For the fifth slot, Cooper should be a strong contender on the strength of Silver Linings Playbook but could struggle: not because he did not make the Globes or SAG (he did) but because he got a Globe nomination for a Musical Comedy — Oscar is not very kind to newbie pretty-boy contenders, especially for non-dramatic roles. Conversely, there is Phoenix, whose film never caught on at the box office. He managed a Globe nod but missed out on the important SAG mention.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Alternate: Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Chastain, Lawrence, and Cotillard are certain locks having appeared on the Globes and SAG nominations respectively. Watts and Mirren both appeared on the Globes and SAG nomination lists and cannot be counted out. Wallis’ film did not qualify for SAG nominations but might still make a play having been buzzed since the Sundance Film Festival last winter.
Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Alternate: Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Based on their showing on the Globes and SAG nominations lists, Lee, Hoffman and Arkin are almost certain to be called on 10 January. De Niro missed out on a Globe nomination but was mentioned at SAG which makes him a strong possibility for one of the two available slots. The fifth nominee could either be DiCaprio or Bardem. If nominated, the latter will make Academy history as the first nominated performance from a Bond film,
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Alternate: Nicole Kidman (Paperboy)
The supporting-actress category has three locks in Field, Hathaway, and Hunt based on their showing at the Globe and SAG nominations. Adams did not get a SAG mention, which makes her weaker despite a Globe nomination. The fifth slot is a scramble between golden oldies: Smith and Kidman; the latter showed up on the Globes and SAG nominations despite being in a critically panned film.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life Of Pi
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln, written by Tony Kushner, is the favorite.
Best Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Arbitrage
The Master
Middle of Nowhere
The race is probably between Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty.
Best Foreign Language
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
Lore(Australia)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Amour is the favorite in this category.
