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We’ve arrived: Oscar night 2011, hosted by James Franco and Anne Hathaway. (Nominees here.) And LW’s Academy Awards obsessive Rex Okpodu has made his annual predictions. Mostly, he agrees with the other Oscar experts. He’s taken a big risk in one major category, going with Helena Bonham Carter to win Best Supporting Actress instead of the safer Melissa Leo (my own choice) or Hailee Steinfeld. My other difference from Rex: I think that “The Social Network” will win Best Score. Good luck to all of you in your Oscar betting pools. Rex’s predictions after the jump.

THE 83rd ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

Best Picture

It will seem very likely that The King’s Speech (PGA/DGA/SAG/BAFTA) will beat critics’ and Golden Globe winner The Social Network for best picture. The only question is if there is to be a sweep of over 7 Oscars, mini-sweep of about 5 or 6, or an almost equal share of the spoils on Oscar night.

“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right ”
“The King’s Speech” – PREDICTED WINNER
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network” – ALTERNATE WINNER
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”

Best Director

Fincher won the Globe and BAFTA while Hopper, was the surprise DGA winner. The DGA is the best barometer for the best picture and directing Oscar but Fincher seems much stronger as the better known in Hollywood of the two. It will not be a shock, however, if best director were to go to Hooper for The King’s Speech.

Darren Aronofsky for “Black Swan”
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “True Grit”
David Fincher for “The Social Network” – PREDICTED WINNER
Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech” – ALTERNATE WINNER
David O. Russell for “The Fighter”

Actor in a Leading Role

This is one of the sure things of Oscar night. It will be a monumental upset if Firth (Globe/SAG/BAFTA winner) were to lose in this category.

Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech” – PREDICTED WINNER

Actress in a Leading Role

Pundits are still holding out for a Bening but it is likely that Portman (Globe/SAG/BAFTA winner) will receive the statue on Oscar night.

Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” – PREDICTED WINNER
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” – ALTERNATE WINNER
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Actor in a Supporting Role

The supporting acting categories are always difficult to predict. If they are awarded at the beginning of the telecast, they will signify what kind of night is in store for the frontrunners for best picture. It is very likely that The Fighter could end up with both supporting acting Oscars on the night. The chances of that happening are quite rare (only 7 instances where the same film won both awards, with the last, Dianne Wiest and Michael Caine for 1986’s Hannah And Her Sisters). Bale (Globe/SAG winner) seems almost certain but Rush (a surprise victor at BAFTA) could add to the best actor Oscar he won for 1996’s Shine if The King’s Speech is having a royal flush.

Christian Bale in “The Fighter” – PREDICTED WINNER
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech” – ALTERNATE WINNER
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”

Actress in a Supporting Role

In the female category, Melissa Leo (Globe and SAG winner) was a shoo-in until Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech) stole her thunder at BAFTA and I am taking the biggest chance of the night by predicting that she will repeat this on Oscar night. It is a long shot but the acting categories will be boring if the SAG/GLOBE winners keep repeating at the Oscars. Somehow, I am hoping for an upset this year and this is the vulnerable category. There was also a small controversy with Leo’s self styled “for your consideration ads” and it remains to be seen whether this hurt her. Another deciding factor: Leo is competing with her co-star, Amy Adams, in the same category. Further still, there has been a suggestion that fellow nominee Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), easily the co-lead of that film, might be take this category if her multi-nominated blockbuster film is to be adequately rewarded.

Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech” – PREDICTED WINNER
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” – ALTERNATE WINNER
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Adapted Screenplay

There are no alternates winners for the screenplays as best picture front runners,The Social Network and The King’s Speech, are expected to carry their respective categories.

Aaron Sorkin for “The Social Network” – PREDICTED WINNER
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy for “127 Hours”
Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich for “Toy Story 3″
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “True Grit”
Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini for “Winter’s Bone”

Original Screenplay

David Seidler for “The King’s Speech” – PREDICTED WINNER
Mike Leigh for “Another Year”
Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington and Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson for “The Fighter”
Christopher Nolan for “Inception”
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg for “The Kids Are All Right”

Animated Feature

“Toy Story 3″ – PREDICTED WINNER
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”

Foreign Language Film

“In a Better World”: Denmark – PREDICTED WINNER
“Biutiful”: Mexico – ALTERNATE WINNER
“Dogtooth”: Greece
“Incendies”: Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)”: Algeria

Cinematography

True Grit – PREDICTED WINNER
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech – ALTERNATE WINNER (IF THERE IS A KING’S SPEECH SWEEP)
The Social Network

Film Editing

The Social Network – PREDICTED WINNER
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech – ALTERNATE WINNER (IF THERE IS A KING’S SPEECH SWEEP)
127 Hours

Original Score

The King’s Speech PREDICTED WINNER
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
127 Hours
The Social Network – ALTERNATE WINNER

AND THE REST…

Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland – PREDICTED WINNER

The King’s Speech – ALTERNATE WINNER (In the event of a major or minor sweep)

Costume Design

The King’s Speech – PREDICTED WINNER (in event of a major or minor sweep)

Alice in Wonderland – ALTERNATE WINNER

Makeup

Wolfman

Original Song

127 Hours

Sound Editing

Inception

Sound Mixing

Inception

Visual Effects

Inception

Documentary Feature

Inside Job – PREDICTED WINNER

Exit Through The Gift Shop – ALTERNATE WINNER

Documentary Short Subject

Strangers No More

Live Action Short Film

God of Love

Animated Short Film

The Lost Thing

by Brendan Lemon | 2/25/11 | Leave a comment |