Can Leo And Bale Both Win?
LemonWade’s Oscar prognosticator, Rex Okpodu, has analyzed all the guild results (DGA, PGA, and SAG) and issued this report: ‘So Portman and Firth are locked to win Oscars in the actress and actor categories. Bale and Leo also look like locks but I cannot help feeling one of the latter two will fall at the Oscars as it is quite rare for both supporting categories to be won by the same film. The last time that happened was in 1986 – Michael Caine and Dianne Wiest (Hannah and Her Sisters) — and before then in 1971: Cloris Leachman and Ben Johnson (The Last Picture Show). Then we go then we go as far back as 1960 for West Side Story and the 1950s for Sayonara, From Here to Eternity and A Streetcar named Desire. (Desire even added best actress to both supporting categories). In 83 years, the same film has won both supporting acting Oscars only 6 times.
‘As for Best Picture, it will seem that with the PGA, DGA and now, SAG ensemble in the bag, The King’s Speech is poised to take the directing and best picture Oscars but I will not count out The Social Network picking up at least the directing category. In 2002, Rob Marshall (another newcomer director) won the DGA and lost the Oscar to veteran Roman Polanski (The Pianist) while Chicago won best picture. Also in 1995, Apollo 13 won the DGA and PGA and still lost the Oscar (Ron Howard was not even nominated). All of this reasoning is based on the simple fact that there are still 4 weeks to go and the Oscar ballots have not even been sent out yet. Four weeks is a long time to get tired of the frontrunner. We all remember what happened to Brokeback Mountain at the 2006 Oscars. (Granted, in that case, the winter Olympics meant 2 extra weeks of campaigning and there was the gay factor.)’
