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Here they are: the official Academy Award predictions for this Sunday’s event, courtesy of LW’s Oscar expert, Rex Okpodu. If you want to win your AA pool, then use this guide!

BEST PICTURE

Avatar – MY PREDICTED WINNER
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker – CONSENSUS PREDICTED WINNER
Inglourious Basterds – LONGSHOT SPOILER
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Avatar might triumph based on its overall popularity. The Hurt Locker has triumphed so far based on its reviews, good writing and directing. We know the Globes liked Avatar and the Critics, Guilds and BAFTAs went Hurt Locker’s way. No one knows what impact the preferential voting system used for best picture this year will have. Some early indication will depend on best adapted screenplay and/or cinematography going the way of The Hurt Locker or Avatar sweeping all the technical categories for which it is nominated. Of course, Aviator did that in 2004 yet lost the big ones at the end of the night

BEST ACTOR

Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) – PREDICTED WINNER
Colin Firth (A Single Man) – LONGSHOT SPOILER
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker) – ALTERNATE WINNER
Bridges is almost certain to get this Oscar and a standing ovation but a surprise win for Renner will definitely herald that The Hurt Locker is on the way towards a major sweep.

BEST ACTRESS

Gabby Sibide (Precious) – LONGSHOT SPOILER
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia) – ALTERNATE WINNER
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) – PREDICTED WINNER
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)

Meryl has not won an Oscar since 1982 and is very much overdue having lost 14 nominations so far. Sentiment favours Bullock whose film, The Blind Side, is one 1 of the 10 contenders for best picture. Having won the SAG and Globe, Bullock is better positioned to claim the best actress prize on Oscar night.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) – PREDICTED WINNER
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
There is no way Bigelow will go home without a victory in this category, with or without a corresponding win in the best picture category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) – PREDICTED WINNER
Matt Damon (Invictus)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)

Unlike most years when the supporting acting categories have been unpredictable, everything has gone according to plan for a victory on the night for both Waltz and Mo’Nique in their respective categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mo’Nique (Precious) – PREDICTED WINNER
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Penelope Cruz (Nine)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Up – PREDICTED WINNER
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Secret of Kells
The Princess and the Frog

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inglourious Basterds – ALTERNATE WINNER
Up
The Messenger
A Serious Man
The Hurt Locker – PREDICTED WINNER

In the last few years, this category has been awarded early in the evening. If the same holds this year and The Hurt Locker wins, this might indicate a good night ahead for that war drama. Alternatively, a victory for Basterds could indicate that The Hurt Locker is not as strong as predicted.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Up in the Air – PREDICTED WINNER
Precious – LONGSHOT
An Education
In the Loop
District 9

Up in the Air will take this in a walk.

And the rest…..

Art Direction

“Avatar” PREDICTED WINNER
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Nine”
“The Young Victoria”

Cinematography

“Avatar” PREDICTED WINNER
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“The White Ribbon”

Costume Design

“Bright Star”
“Coco Before Chanel”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“The Young Victoria” PREDICTED WINNER

Film Editing

“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker” PREDICTED WINNER
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”

Makeup

“Il Divo”
“Star Trek” PREDICTED WINNER
“The Young Victoria”

Music
(Original Score)

“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Up” PREDICTED WINNER

Music
(Original Song)

“Crazy Heart” PREDICTED WINNER
“Nine”
“Paris 36”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Princess and the Frog”

Sound Editing

“Avatar” PREDICTED WINNER
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Up”

Sound Mixing

“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker” PREDICTED WINNER
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”

Visual Effects

“Avatar” PREDICTED WINNER
“District 9”
“Star Trek”

Animated Feature Film

“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Secret of Kells”
“Up” PREDICTED WINNER

Foreign Language Film

Argentina
“The Secret in Their Eyes” PREDICTED WINNER
France
“A Prophet”
Germany
“The White Ribbon”
Israel
“Ajami”
Peru
“The Milk of Sorrow”

Documentary Feature

“Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country”
“The Cove” PREDICTED WINNER
“Food, Inc.”
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”
“Which Way Home”

Documentary Short

“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” PREDICTED WINNER
“The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner”
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
“Music by Prudence”
“Rabbit a la Berlin”

Short Film
(Animated)

“French Roast”
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty”
“The Lady and the Reaper”
“Logorama”
“A Matter of Loaf and Death” PREDICTED WINNER

Short Film
(Live Action)

“The Door” PREDICTED WINNER
“Instead of Abracadabra”
“Kavi”
“Miracle Fish”
“The New Tenants”

by Brendan Lemon | 3/4/10 | Leave a comment |