Oscars 2010: LemonWade’s First List
LemonWade’s Oscar expert, Rex Okpodu, has come up with his first prognostication for the season. The Academy Awards will be held in Los Angeles on March 7, 2010. Rex’s lists are a little long at this point, since so many of the movies (“Invictus,” “The Lovely Bones,” “Amelia”) haven’t been much seen yet. Looking at the acting lists, which include Emily Blunt starring in “The Young Victoria” and Colin Firth playing a gay Brit in “A Single Man,” Rex and I have decided that there is only one sure thing in the Oscar derby: Never count out someone playing a queen, especially if that queen is English.
BEST PICTURE:
HURT LOCKER
UP IN THE AIR
AN EDUCATION
BRIGHT STAR
INVICTUS
AVATAR
PRECIOUS
THE LOVELY BONES
NINE
TREE OF LIFE
UP
STAR TREK
JULIE & JULIA
Rex says: I am sure of at least 7 of the 10 listed above and hold out hope for the inclusion of STAR TREK as one of the box-office winners from the summer. Expect the annual speculation for inclusion of a well-received animated feature (this year, UP) especially since we now have 10 best picture possibilities.
BEST DIRECTOR:
KATHRYN BIGELOW (HURT LOCKER)
LEE DANIELS (PRECIOUS)
CLINT EASTWOOD (INVICTUS)
JASON REITMAN (UP IN THE AIR)
PETER JACKSON (THE LOVELY BONES)
JAMES CAMERON (AVATAR)
We can have only 5 directors from 10 best picture contenders. I am certain this means there could be at least 2 directors without a corresponding best picture nomination. This makes this category the hardest to predict this year.
BEST ACTOR:
MATT DAMON (THE INFORMANT!)
GEORGE CLOONEY (UP IN THE AIR)
MORGAN FREEMAN (INVICTUS)
COLIN FIRTH (A SINGLE MAN)
JEREMY RENNER (HURT LOCKER)
BEN WHISHAW (BRIGHT STAR)
Clooney, Damon and Firth (assuming his film is released this year) seem like safe bets based on the raves for their performances so far. I have included Freeman who plays a “living saint,” Nelson Mandela, under Clint’s direction which cannot hurt. Neither does the fact that it is a biopic (Oscar’s favorite genre).
BEST ACTRESS:
MERYL STREEP (JULIE & JULIA)
CAREY MULLIGAN (AN EDUCATION)
GABOUREY SIDIBE (PRECIOUS)
ABBIE CORNISH (BRIGHT STAR)
EMILY BLUNT (YOUNG VICTORIA)
HILARY SWANK (AMELIA)
ANNETTE BENING (MOTHER AND CHILD)
The safe bets are Streep and Mulligan. Swank will be in if AMELIA turns out well. Bening got good reviews from the Toronto Film Festival which might mean her inclusion in a category against Swank for the 3rd time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
ALFRED MOLINA (AN EDUCATION)
MATT DAMON (INVICTUS)
STANLEY TUCCI (THE LOVELY BONES)
CHRISTOPHE WALTZ (INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS)
PAUL SCHEIDER (BRIGHT STAR)
The supporting categories are notoriously difficult to predict, so we can expect lots of wild cards on nomination morning. At the moment, the safest bet is WALTZ from the hit Tarantino movie.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
MO’NIQUE (PRECIOUS)
SAOIRSE RONAN (THE LOVELY BONES)
MARION COTILLARD (NINE)
JUDI DENCH (NINE)
PENELOPE CRUZ (NINE)
The safe money is on MO’NIQUE but I have included the ladies from “Nine” because history suggests a musical up for Best Picture (if NINE is nominated) always comes with a best supporting actress nomination or two.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
UP
MONSTERS AND ALIENS
PONYO
CORALINE
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
Two locks for nominations now, UP and PONYO.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
BRIGHT STAR (JANE CAMPION)
UP (BOB PATERSON)
THE HURT LOCKER (MARK BOAL)
THE TREE OF LIFE (TERENCE MALICK)
A SERIOUS MAN (ETHAN AND JOEL COEN)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
PRECIOUS (DAMIEN PAUL FROM THE NOVEL BY SAPPHIRE)
THE LOVELY BONES (PETER JACKSON, FRAN WALSH AND PHILLIPA BOYENS FROM THE BOOK BY ALICE SEBOLD)
THE INFORMANT (SCOTT Z. BURNS FROM THE BOOK BY KURT EICHENWALD)
UP IN THE AIR (JASON REITMAN AND SHELDON TURNER FROM THE BOOK BY WALTER KIRN)
AN EDUCATION (NICK HORNBY BASED ON THE LYNN BARBER MEMOIRS)
